Posted on April 8th, 2009 — in Politics
Water shortages, a longer forest fire season, and significant cropland loss could be in store for California as the climate warms in the coming decades, according to a new report. The Climate Action Team Report examines the impact of global warming on California’s public health,
infrastructure, and natural resources — and warns that “severe and costly climate impacts are possible and likely across California” if greenhouse gas emissions are not curbed.
Posted on March 18th, 2009 — in National Affairs :: Politics :: Public Finance
The California Budget Project has created a table describing many of the provisions in the $787 billion stimulus package that will benefit California. Details for each provision include program area, purpose, and estimated impact in California.
Posted on September 19th, 2008 — in Politics :: Polls and Surveys :: State Budget
Key state lawmakers have finally hammered out a state budget, 81 days after the start of the fiscal year — perhaps bringing an end to the longest budget stalemate in California history, after a veto threat from the governor held things up for three days. (The previous record for the length of time it took to pass a budget was in 2002, when a budget was not passed until August 31.)
Part of the impetus for the sudden movement on the budget after weeks of no movement may have been a recent Field Poll that showed state legislators with the lowest approval ratings ever recorded in the poll — 15% of registered voters approve of the job state legislators are doing, while 73% disapprove. (The previous record, 23%, was set in July 1992, in the midst of another serious state budget crisis.)
Posted on September 16th, 2008 — in Governor :: Politics :: Polls and Surveys
While Governor Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings have now declined to nearly the lowest level of his time in office, he may take some solace from the fact that there appears to be little public appetite for a recently-launched effort by the California Correctional Peace Officers Association to recall him. Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings are now at 38%, according to a new Field Poll, which is just two points higher than his previous low point, in August 2005 (when he had 36% approval). However, when news of recall efforts against Gray Davis first surfaced in April 2003, his approval ratings were at 24%. According to the new poll, 63% of registered voters statewide say that they would vote against any effort to recall Schwarzenegger were it to appear on the ballot. 46% of registered voters in April 2003 said that they would vote to recall Gray Davis.
Posted on July 23rd, 2008 — in Governor :: Legislature :: Politics :: Polls and Surveys :: State Budget
Another new Field Poll shows attitudes of registered voters about Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger continuing to show a decline trend, with the governor now at 46% disapproval and 40% approval, the lowest rating that he has had since April 2006. The governor’s only consolation may be that voter attitudes about the Legislature are even worse, with 57% disapproval and 27% approval (the worst rating since October 2005). 68% of registered voters now say that they consider the state’s budget situation to be “very serious,” but 41% and 52% of registered voters also express “not much” optimism about the ability of the governor and the Legislature respectively to resolve the situation (up from 29% and 40% in December 2007).
Posted on July 23rd, 2008 — in Ballot Measures :: Politics :: Polls and Surveys
Voter awareness thus far about several of the November ballot measures is limited, according to a new Field Poll, but when likely voters are told about the initiatives, they tend to favor them. The poll asked voters about five of the ballot measures (Proposition 1, the high speed rail bond; Proposition 2, the farm animal cruelty prevention measure; Proposition 4, the abortion parental notification measure; Proposition 7, the renewable energy standards measure; and Proposition 11, the redistricting measure). The ballot measures generally registered voter awareness in the 15% to 25% range, with the abortion measure having the highest level of awareness at 45%. When given a summary of the measures, voters generally had positive reactions, with support ranging from 41% for the redistricting measure to 63% for the farm animal and renewable energy measures.
Posted on July 21st, 2008 — in Ballot Measures :: Growth, Development & Infrastructure :: Politics :: Resources and Environment
A new report from the Public Policy Institute of California re-emphasizes the point (made in previous PPIC reports, as well as reports from the Delta Vision Blue Ribbon Task Force) that the systems that currently hold the Delta ecosystem together are “unstable and headed for major change.” The report makes several recommendations to improve the Delta, including building a peripheral canal, a proposal that is sure to be controversial, given the 63-37% defeat of a ballot measure in June 1982 that proposed a similar solution. (PPIC has an interactive map that displays county voting patterns on Proposition 9, showing the significant disparity between voting patterns in most of the counties of southern California, together with Kern County, and the rest of the state.)
Posted on July 18th, 2008 — in Ballot Measures :: Politics :: Polls and Surveys :: Social Policy
Proposition 8, which qualified for the November ballot on June 2, would amend the state constitution to read that “Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California.”
According to a new Field Poll, if the election were held today, a slight majority of voters would reject this ballot measure (by a 51% to 42% margin). Geographic and partisan differences are significant. In the coastal regions of the state, voters oppose Proposition 8 by a margin of 56% to 37%, while in the inland regions, supporters outnumber opponents by 54% to 40%. 63% of Democrats polled say that they intend to vote against the amendment. 68% of Republicans say that they intend to vote for it. There are also significant differences in opinion depending on ethnicity (Hispanics tend slightly to favor the amendment and other ethnic groups tend slightly to oppose it), religion (Protestants favor the amendment by 56% to 40%, while Catholics are evenly divided), and whether the voter knows someone who is gay or lesbian (those who do oppose the amendment 54% to 40%).
The poll also indicates that voter awareness about Proposition 8 is already fairly high, with 62% saying that they had seen or heard something about it.
Posted on May 30th, 2008 — in Ballot Measures :: Growth, Development & Infrastructure :: Politics :: Polls and Surveys
Another new Field Poll shows that the chances look slim that Proposition 98, the more prominent of two ballot measures tackling eminent domain issues, will be passed in next week’s primary election. (In addition to reforming eminent domain, Proposition 98 would eradicate existing local rent control laws across the state.) Likely voters in the primary oppose Proposition 98 by a margin of 43-33% and support the competing initiative, Proposition 99, by a margin of 48-30%. The summary of the poll results points out that the last initiative to feature eminent domain reform, Proposition 90, was defeated by a 52-48% margin in November 2006.
Posted on May 28th, 2008 — in Ballot Measures :: Politics :: Polls and Surveys :: Social Policy
Same-sex marriage is once again a major issue in California politics after the state Supreme Court’s 4-3 decision May 15 that affirmed the right of same-sex couples to wed — and the increased likelihood following that decision that an initiative will appear on the November ballot to amend the state constitution to ban same-sex marriages or any other solemnification of same-sex partnerships.
Two new surveys, one from the Los Angeles Times and KTLA, the other from the Field Poll, highlight the intensity of the balance of opinion about same-sex marriage in California. The Times/KTLA poll, which came out on Friday, showed the proposed initiative garnering 54-35% support among registered voters. The article accompanying the poll said that despite the apparent majority backing the ballot measure, “the state is moving closer to accepting nontraditional marriages” and “because ballot measures on controversial topics often lose support during the course of a campaign, strategists typically want to start out well above the 50% support level.”
The Field Poll, released this morning, showed that for the first time since the organization began asking the question in 1977, a razor-thin majority of California registered voters approves the idea of allowing same-sex couples to marry, by a margin of 51 to 42%. However, reflecting the fact that this opinion balances on the head of a pin, the further demographic breakdowns of the poll reveal much sharper splits, with Republicans, Catholics and Protestants, voters over the age of 65, and Central Valley voters opposing same-sex marriage by wide margins.
Posted on February 4th, 2008 — in National Affairs :: Politics :: Polls and Surveys
The latest Field Poll shows Senator Barack Obama pulling close to even with Senator Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination in California. Obama now trails Clinton by just two percentage points among likely voters (36-34%). This is a dramatic change since the last Field Poll was released on January 22. That poll showed Obama trailing Clinton by 12 percentage points.
Other recent polls released this weekend or late last week, including the CNN/Opinion Research national survey, and the American Research Group and Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking polls for California, show similar trends. Obama’s candidacy seems to be gaining momentum.
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Posted on January 31st, 2008 — in Demographics :: Elections and Voting :: National Affairs :: Politics :: Polls and Surveys
According to a recent report from the Pew Hispanic Center, the gap in party affiliation among Hispanics has widened drmamatically in the past 1 to 2 years. The gap in affiliation between Hispanics who identified themselves as Democrats and those who identified themselves as Republicans was only 21% in 2006. The gap is now 34%.
In 2004, 32% of Hispanic voters in California voted for George Bush. Bush lost the state by 10 percentage points. Hispanics constitute a strategic percentage of eligible voters in 4 out of 6 states where George Bush won in 2004 by 5 percentage points or fewer. (The 4 states are New Mexico, Florida, Nevada, and Colorado.) In California, Hispanics constitute a project 16.8% of the share of the projected atate vote in 2008. In states like California, where the vote for president could be closely contested, the participation of Hispanic voters could mean the difference between one party winning or losing the election. That reality is even more apparent in states like the four mentioned above, because the 2004 election was far more closely contested in those states.