Compiled by Frank Lester and Nick Robinson
Institute of Governmental Studies Library
University of California at Berkeley
The PPIC survey mentioned in the last post also asked Californians to assess the performance of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and of the state legislature. Californians are increasingly unhappy with the governor’s performance — 48% disapproving and 41% approving (a decline in 16 points in approval from December 2007). The legislature’s approval rating is much lower, at 26%.
Californians these days rank the economy and jobs as their major concerns, but education also scores high as a significant worry among residents, according to the results of a major Public Policy Institute of California survey released today.
53% of Californians view the quality of K-12 public schools as a major problem. 31% view it as somewhat of a problem. 59% say that the public school system needs major changes, but few trust the governor or the legislature to get anything done. In terms of geography, more people in the Inland Empire gave their public schools average or lower grades than any other region in the state, with 47% ranking the local school systems C or below. The Bay Area was close behind, with 46% ranking the public schools C or below.
When asked whether they would support raising taxes just to maintain current spending levels for public schools, residents were evenly divided, with 49% saying they would be willing and 48% saying they would not. Even more residents were opposed to raising the sales tax to accomplish this goal, with 63% opposed.
The PPIC report is full data in response to other questions that residents were asked about the state of education in California, including adequacy and efficiency of state funding, resource equity, teacher quality, curriculum goals, and perceptions of the state’s relative education rankings.
New figures from the Employment Development Department show that the unemployment rate in California jumped to 6.2% in March, the highest rate since July 2004, when the rate was at the same mark. California is now only behind Michigan (7.2%) and Alaska (6.7%) in unemployment. Counties with high numbers of jobs in housing-related employment appear to have been hit hardest, with Riverside County the worst affected (7.4% unemployment).
According to new data released by the Census Bureau, five California metropolitan statistical areas were in the top 25 MSAs with the largest numerical population gains between July 2006 and July 2007. The five were Riverside/San Bernardino/Ontario (86,700, or 2.2% gain), San Francisco/Oakland/Fremont (35,900, or 0.9% gain), Sacramento/Arden-Arcade/Roseville (28,400, or 1.4% gain), San Jose/Sunnyvale/Santa Clara (28,200, or 1.6% gain), and San Diego/Carlsbad/San Marcos (26,500, or 0.9% gain).
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In a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California, Governor Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings have slipped to 44%, which is down 6 points since January and 13 points since December. The governor’s lowest approval rating was 33%, which was in October 2005.
Approval of the legislature among Californians is down to 30%.
The state’s budget woes, which have been heavily featured in the news lately, are a source of particular concern among Californians, according to the PPIC poll. 68% say that the budget situation is a “big problem.” 56% say that they are “very concerned” about the effects of spending reductions in the governor’s latest budget proposal. 42% prefer a mix of budget cuts and tax increases to deal with the budget crisis. In general, Californians are extremely pessimistic about the way things are going nationally — 73% say that things are going in the wrong direction, the highest point in the 10-year history of the PPIC poll in which this question has been asked.
The poll also asks about Proposition 98, the eminent domain initiative on the June ballot that would restrict or eliminate rent control in jurisdictions in which it is now in effect. 41% of likely voters say that they would vote against Proposition 98. 37% say that they would vote for it. Proposition 99, a competing initiative that would supersede Proposition 98 if it got more votes on the June ballot, garners 53-27% support.
According to the latest figures from the Employment Development Department, the state unemployment rate fell to 5.7% in February, down from 5.9% in January but still up from 5% in February 2007. According to economists, the drop is positive, but statistically (and probably economically) insignificant.
As has been the trend in this economic downturn, the interior counties continue to be hit much harder than the coastal counties. The highest unemployment rate in the state was in Colusa County, at 18.9%. In second and third place were Imperial and Trinity, with 15.9% and 14.6%. Merced and Plumas were fourth and fifth. The counties with the lowest unemployment rates were Marin (3.9%), Mono (4.3%), and Orange (4.3%), with Sonoma and San Francisco close behind.
Despite some news last year that California has been losing residents, four California counties placed in the top 25 counties with the largest numerical population increases between July 2006 and July 2007, according to data released by the Census Bureau today. The four counties are Riverside (66,400, a 3.3% population increase), Santa Clara County (28,100, a 1.6% increase), San Diego County (26,500, a 0.9% increase), and San Bernardino County (20,300, a 1% increase). Riverside placed second in the top 25, behind only Maricopa County in Arizona.
Home sales in California last month made for the the slowest February in at least 20 years, according to information released by DataQuick, the real estate activity information service. (DataQuick’s records go back to 1988.) Sales were down 34% from February 2007. DataQuick indicates that the median price paid for a home last month was $373,000, down 2.6 percent from $383,000 for the month before, and down 21.0 percent from $472,000 for February 2007.
A new report from the Pew Hispanic Center covers the recent surge in Hispanic voter turnout in states critical to the 2008 presidential contest. Among the findings:
A recent fact sheet from the Public Policy Institute of California points out that housing prices in California have taken the steppest plunge in 25 years, which was about the time the country was in the midst of its last major recession (not counting the recessions of 1990-1991 and 2000-2001, which were shallower and briefer than this recession is expected by many observers to be). Between the fourth quarter of 2006 and the fourth quarter of 2007, housing prices fell by 6.6% in California, whereas two years ago, housing prices were still rising by 21%. Nationally during the same quarters, housing prices nationwide rose by 0.8%. In addition, foreclosures in California were at 1.9% in 2007, well above the national average of 1%. As often occurs in economic downturns, the interior regions of the state were hit harder than the coastal regions. In the San Francisco metropolitan region, home prices fell by only 0.9.%; in Los Angeles, Santa Cruz, and San Jose, home prices fell by less than 4%. However, in Merced, Modesto and Stockton, home prices fell by 15% — the largest one-year decline in any California metropolitan region in at least 30 years. Construction permits also took huge dives in some interior regions, with declines between 2004 and 2007 of 60% in Riverside-San Bernardino, 63% in Modesto, 73% in Stockton, and 76% in Merced.
The California Property Owners and Farmland Protection Act, which has qualified as Proposition 98 on the June 3 ballot, defines rent control as a form of eminent domain and if enacted would provide that any rent control ordinance in effect prior to January 2007 become essentially invalid. Most of the cash thus far for the initiative has come from landlord and property owners’ groups and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. Two groups that have signed on to oppose Proposition 98 are the AARP and the League of Women Voters.
There are currently 12 California cities with rent control ordinances, including several of the state’s largest urban centers: San Francisco, Oakland, Los Angeles, San Jose, Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, West Hollywood, Palm Springs, Los Gatos, Hayward, East Palo Alto, and Berkeley. (Thousand Oaks also had a rent control ordinance in effect but has gradually phased it out.)
Because California enacted vacancy decontrol measures in 1995, in communities with rent control, rental units have shown a huge discrepancy in price between vacated units, which landlords have been able to re-price beyond the standard allowable annual rent increase, and units with tenants who have remained put. Expect the number of vacated units (whether they are vacated voluntarily or involuntarily) in those communities to drastically rise if Proposition 98 becomes law.